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Next week, the official China PMI will release, which, unlike other countries, will be always released on the last day of the month instead of the first day of the next month. This will be the first major data version since “Tahrir Day”, when the customs tariff for imports of China has increased by a total of 125 percentage points through a wide range of products. There are already anecdotal reports about the factory closing and sharply reduce working hours. However, high frequency data from China in particular draw a different image (so far), FX Commerzbank’s notes.
CNY holds a company in the midst of trade tensions
“Steel production is still very strong. On the first 20 days of April, steel production was approximately 10 % higher than it was in the same period last year. Car sales are also on the right track of the number one growth in April. According to the National Institute of Statistics, there was no significant decrease in charging.”
“The situation is different in the housing market, as daily sales data again indicates a great slowdown in momentum and therefore no end to the crisis. However, it must also be said that the housing market was in a crisis for years and that this development is unlikely to have a great relationship with definitions.”
“Alternative feelings indicators indicate a slowdown, but not the collapse. A similar image can be expected from official purchasing managers. CNY should be less affected. The exchange rate against the US dollar was somewhat stable for several days. It is possible that this will remain the case in the absence of another positive movement on the political front in the additional position.
