The Japanese yen is missing part of the modest gains inside the day amid the tone of positive risks
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- The Japanese yen attracts some buyers and reflects part of the losses overnight.
- Reducing the rates of boys and increased recession fears, safe deception flows towards JPY.
- Dovish’s Federal Reserve expects the US dollar and also put pressure on the US dollar/JPY.
The Japanese yen (JPY) saves part of the modest gains during the day against its American counterpart, although the short -term bias still seems to be in favor of the upscale merchants. Fears that mutual definitions in the United States can negatively affect the Japanese economy, as well as a slight improvement in global risk morale, as a opposite wind in favor of secure JPY. However, acceptance of the increasing market that the Bank of Japan (BOJ) will continue to raise interest rates in 2025, amid signs of expansion of inflation, may prevent JPY bears from putting aggressive bets.
Meanwhile, the mutual definitions worn by US President Donald Trump raises the risk of global economic slowdown. This should also contribute to reducing any JPY losses, which, along with the emergence of the sale of the new US dollar (USD), keeps a USD/JPY pair less than the 148.00 mark through the Asian session. Traders manufactured the bets that the American economic slowdown by the customs tariff may force the Federal Reserve (Fed) to resume the price cutting course soon. This keeps the dollar bulls on the defense defense and must benefit JPY less.
The Japanese bulls are seen that refrains from improving the global risk gains of safe assets
- The data released on Monday showed that the nominal wages in Japan increased by 3.1 % year on year in February compared to an increase of 1.8 % revised in the previous month. Meanwhile, the real modified wages contracting inflation by 1.2 % in February, which represents the second monthly decrease in a row, indicating that high inflation weighs on profits.
- In fact, the consumer enlargement rate used by the government to calculate real wages by 4.3 % on an annual basis. This comes in addition to the positive wage negotiations for wages – which led to an agreement of 5.47 % on average and a positive signal to the local economy – and supports the issue for further normalization of policy by the Bank of Japan.
- Investors are still concerned that the mutual definitions committed by US President Donald Trump will disrupt the global trading system and reach economic activity around the world. Moreover, Trump increased the bet in his trade war with China and threatened an additional 50 % tariff for China if 34 % reprisal import fees were not withdrawn on American products.
- This is anxious about the concern that the sharp commercial barriers around the largest market for consumers in the world can lead to stagnation, which in turn helps the Japanese yen safe to attract some purchases. The US dollar, on the other hand, stops a two -day recovery from its lowest levels over several months amid bets for aggressive interest rate discounts by the Federal Reserve.
- Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell said on Friday that the US Central Bank was in a good position to wait for more clarity before making changes such as price discounts, adding that the Trump tariff could have a strong inflationary effect. Meanwhile, Trump called for reducing interest rates as soon as possible, on the pretext that the American economy is in a strong position.
- Moreover, traders are now pricing at a greater possibility that the Federal Reserve Reserves will resume a price cutting course in June and offer at least four discounts at the end of this year. This, in turn, will narrow the scope of the difference between the United States and Japan, indicating that the low -resistant path of low JPY is to the upward trend.
- There is no economic data related to moving the market due to release the United States on Tuesday, leaving the US dollar at the mercy of trade -related developments and the speech of the President of the Federal Reserve of Mary Dali. Meanwhile, the focus on launching FOMC meetings on Wednesday and inflation figures in the United States remains on Thursday.
USD/JPY needs to exceed 148.15 obstacles to support prospects for further recovery from the lowest multi -month level
From a technical perspective, the inability of the USD/JPY pair to find a higher acceptance of the 148.00 mark and warn the subsequent slide slices of the budget traders. Moreover, the vibrations daily table She holds in negative lands and is still far from being in the sale area, and checking negative health in the short term Expectations For the currency pair. However, a continuous step may lead to the height of the Asian session, throughout the 148.15 region, to a short -term crowd and raising immediate prices to 148.70 intermediate obstacles on its way to the round number 149.00. The following relevant barrier is linked near the 149.35-149.40 area, which, if wiped, must pave the way to move towards the restoration of the psychological brand 150.00.
On the other hand, the 147.00 mark can provide some support, which the dollar pair/JPY can speed up the slide again towards the round shape 146.00 before declining to the 145.40 region. Some follow -up can make immediate prices vulnerable and may weaken more than the psychological brand 145.00 and test the lowest multi -month level, throughout the 144.55 region, on Monday. The subsequent fall has the ability to withdraw the currency pair towards the 144.00 mark.
The risks of feelings common questions
In the world of financial terminology, the two terms are widely indicated by “risk” and “risk” to the level of risks that investors in the stomach want during the aforementioned period. In the “risk” market, investors are optimistic about the future, and therefore they are more willing to buy risky assets. Relatively modest.
Usually, during periods of “risks”, stock markets will rise, most goods-with the exception of gold-value, will benefit from positive growth expectations. The currencies of countries that are a source of heavy goods are enhanced due to increased demand and the height of encrypted currencies. In the “risk” market, the bonds-especially the major government-golden barking bonds, and safe clips such as the Japanese yen, the Swiss franc and the US dollar.
The Australian dollar (AUD), the Canadian dollar (CAD), the New Zealand dollar (NZD) and the small FX such as RUBLE (RUB) and Rand South African (Zar), tend to rise in the “risk” markets. This is because the economies of these currencies are largely dependent on the exports of basic commodity for growth, and goods tend to rise in prices during risk periods. This is because investors expect more demand for raw materials in the future due to an increase in economic activity.
The main currencies that tend to rise during “risk” periods are the US dollar (US dollar), Japanese yen (JPY) and Swiss franc (CHF). The US dollar, because it is the world’s reserve currency, and because investors in times of crisis buy the debts of the US government, which are safe because the largest economy in the world is unlikely to fail to pay. Elaine, from increasing demand for Japanese government bonds, because a high percentage is kept by local investors who are unlikely to get rid of them – even in a crisis. The Swiss franc, because strict Swiss banking laws provide investors to protect capital.
