The coming election will be about who can navigate change

Article content

As we ready ourselves for a truly consequential election, most pundits are predicting that the ballot question will be about who is best able to negotiate with U.S. President Donald Trump. In reality, our trading system is changing so radically that the real question is: who can best adapt to change? I’d argue it’s Pierre Poilievre and the Conservative party.

Article content

Poilievre and the Conservative party have demonstrated that they get it. Putting Canadian interests first by building pipelines, quickly developing mines, cutting taxes, investing in skilled trades, equipping and recruiting for our Armed Forces, breaking down internal trade barriers and diversifying our international trade are all policies that the Conservatives have been talking about consistently since the Harper years.

While it’s flattering that Prime Minister Mark Carney now sees the merit of many of these policies, it looks more like a conversion of necessity. Carney’s past record is to ally himself with the Davos anti-natural resources agenda. Indeed, his first instinct was to fly off to Europe to seek solace with his European friends, who are also reeling from the shifts in U.S. policy.

But we shouldn’t be surprised. Mark Carney is a product of the old international order that worshipped the multilateral free-market system. That system, which served us so well since the end of the Second World War, is dead. Led by U.S. President Donald Trump in the west and China in the east, we are quickly returning to an era of economic mercantilism.

Article content

Article content

The Liberals hope that Canadians will believe that Carney’s CV proves he’s best able to negotiate with Trump. But that assumes there will be a new round of negotiations on a comprehensive North American free trade agreement.

It seems pretty clear now that there is no turning back the clock on U.S. trade policy. For better or worse, the Trump administration believes economic wealth will only come with lasting and meaningful tax cuts, funded in part by a dramatic reduction in government spending and increases in tariff revenue.

That’s why, incidentally, Trump has essentially been saying that if Canada wants to enjoy free trade with the U.S., it will have to become a state.

Unfortunately, Trump’s bombast has clouded the issue for Canadians. America is going ahead with a new trade policy that is based on a Republican consensus about what America’s domestic interests are. They believe their goals can be achieved without being the linchpin of the global trading system. From their perspective, that system is thwarting their goal of making America great again.

Once one understands this, one begins to realize that our response to Trump’s tariffs needs to be very considered. Is it really in our best interest to match Trump tariff for tariff?

Article content

Our strategy will likely have to be more nuanced than that. We have to figure out how we invest in the policies we need to diversify our economy, while making life more affordable for Canadians. This will not be easy if we’re going match the U.S. tariff for tariff.

The Liberals seem to think we just have to tough it out until to the midterm elections. But while Trump is creating lots of chaos, let’s not forget that the Democrats’ trade agenda was protectionist, as well.

A Democratic midterm Congress might attempt to normalize the trade process, but it’s unlikely to roll back America’s trade policy. Democrats are very motivated to recapture the trust of middle America, suggesting we are in for long-term change in American trade policy.

Sadly, there won’t be a return to the special relationship we once had. Comprehensive trade agreements are more likely to be replaced by sectoral agreements. While these may still further our national interests, we need to accept that free trade is done.

Mark Carney is an established player in the old multilateral trading system. Canadians need a party, and a leader, with a track record of putting Canadian interests first.

That’s why the coming election will be about change, and which party is best able to lead that change.

National Post

Mike Coates is co -founder of Rubicon Strategy and chaired Jean Charest’s federal Conservative leadership campaign.

Article content