Mark Norman: Canada faces a lonely future of isolation

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A darkening mood is settling in across Canada as it becomes clear that our country has come under siege by those we had previously believed to have been our closest friends and partners. We may have hoped that this would not come to be, but we are here now and we can’t pretend otherwise. Despite the appearance of randomness and incoherence, we are beginning to more clearly understand the rudimentary strategy at play behind what some have observed as “a dumb” move.

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While we may be annoyed by the actions of the principal antagonist, his henchman, and their tactics, underestimating them is a recipe for failure. We must think beyond our emotional reactions and more fully consider the potential implications for Canada.

Yes, the current U.S. administration appears hell-bent on undermining our economy; but this is most likely a means to an end, intended to set conditions for an inevitable “shake-down” similar to what the world observed last week in the dramatic and obscene exchange with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in the Oval Office. The current focus on tariffs is masking the more serious threats to our sovereignty and our resultant place in the world; I fear that Canada risks becoming a “strategic orphan.”

It should be obvious now that Donald Trump views international relations in strictly bilateral terms and primarily through the lens of narrow national interest, economic or personal advantage. Notions of democracy, self-determination, shared values, and collective interests are no longer considerations in U.S, foreign policy. Further, our European allies are consumed with their own threats and challenges and are beginning to chart their own course – potentially independent from our long-held reliance on North Atlantic collective security. Our dependence on others for our security and prosperity has become a glaring vulnerability.

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The dark reality that we are facing is a world wherein the trade and security relationships with our primary “partner” and closest neighbour is in tatters, our Trans-Atlantic relationships are strained by both distance and perceived irrelevance to European priorities, and for the first time in our lifetimes, the biggest threat to our economic security and independence is arising from the south. Further complicating our isolation would be the U.S. to turn its back on the collective defence assurances provided by NATO leaving Canada as the only remaining member outside of Europe.

The astonishing moves by the U.S. to openly reject any previously accepted logic or established norms of behaviour in pursuit of domestic political objectives — wrapped in a cloak of “America First” hyperbole — has caught all allies off guard. The rambling farce that was Trump’s inaugural address to Congress on Tuesday night confirmed to all of us that bluster, bullying and gaslighting are the instruments of this administration.

More worrying however, is Trump’s deference to Putin. How did we move from trusted partner and closest ally to adversary in the eyes of U.S. leadership. Our Prime Minister asked us all to “think about that for a moment”.

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It is legitimate to ask ourselves how it makes sense that the U.S. [resident would choose to abandon the relationships, friendships, alliances, and principles that enabled American success for decades in exchange for isolation and alignment with a lying, murderous dictator. Perhaps Trump sees merit in some form of detente or peaceful coexistence with Russia, allowing the U.S. to pursue the misguidedly arrogant and frightening dream of building the “dominant” civilization that we heard of on Tuesday.

I don’t pretend to know what Trump and his closest advisors might think on any given day. Still, my instinct is that — as it relates specifically to his ongoing obsession with Canada — we are being intentionally isolated, economically weakened, and psychologically prepared for some form of future coercion or capitulation. Our national and provincial leaders have concluded that this is an all-out assault on our way of life. We need to accept that reality.

In this context, there is arguably no “winning” in the traditional sense. Instead, we have to focus on developing a plan that mitigates the damage in the short term while setting conditions for future success. We must face the world as it is rather than as we might want it to be. All of us could feel the world changed at least three times last week thereby revealing to us that going back to the way things were is no longer an option. The trust and respect that underpinned our relationship with the U.S. for over 200 years has been broken. Our motivation cannot however be spite; it must be the ruthless pursuit of our own national interests.

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The good news is we have most of the ingredients necessary to move forward. More than ever, however, we need bold, visionary leadership, a renewed sense of national ambition, and a coherent plan. We must strengthen our security by mitigating the risks of our current U.S. dependencies. Meanwhile, we must harness the full potential of our natural resources, intellect and industrial capacity. Many orphans grow up to live vibrant, fulfilling, and successful lives. So too can Canada. The opportunity before us is to emerge from our isolation and abandonment to be stronger and better able to face the world on our own.

The time has come for us to shake ourselves out of the relative comfort of our decades long slumber of complacency, self-absorption and unhealthy dependence. The world owes us nothing. We must step-up and make our own way or we must accept what Donald is offering. There’s no “easy button” solution to this wicked problem.

Mark Norman is a former vice chief of the defence staff.

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