Canada faces major crisis in era of political uncertainty

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In the ranks of the strange and unusual, Canada at least deserves passing inclusion as a country facing one of the worst crises in its history with a government that only vaguely qualifies as being in charge.

Justin Trudeau has maybe a week left as prime minister. The Liberal party will choose a new leader on Sunday. Normally, the leader of the governing party serves as prime minister, but it’s not clear when the official handover will take place.

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There’s no certainty on who will replace him, though former central bank governor Mark Carney looks to be the odds-on favourite. Carney does not have a seat in Parliament. Canadians have not had a chance to indicate whether they actually want him as prime minister, or support his agenda, or would even pick him as an MP. It may be months before they get the chance — that, too, like so much else, is up in the air.

Meanwhile, Trudeau is delivering speeches and announcing programs pledging the country to actions that could resonate through our shared future like nothing Canadians have seen before. His fiery address on Tuesday would have been noteworthy from a prime minister with a strong mandate from a supportive electorate, something he notably lacks.

He’s leaving office not because he wants to but because he had no choice. His top minister repudiated him, his caucus rebelled against him, voters sent his poll numbers to subterranean levels. Yet Trudeau took the opportunity to deliver a snarky bit of personal messaging to the thin-skinned and temperamental U.S. president: “Donald … even though you are a very smart guy, this a very dumb thing to do.”

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True as that may be, it can do nothing to improve a situation that is already overwrought and running on out-of-control supplies of personal aggrievement. It succeeded, of course, in prompting Donald Trump to reflexively up the tariff ante, adding yet another level of difficulty for his successor, whoever it might be, to bring some level of mature adult intervention to the brawl.

Once Trudeau’s gone, Ottawa may have to get along, at least for a while, with a neophyte leader who not only lacks public confirmation but has never held elected office or run a government at any level.

Carney is unquestionably an intelligent, highly experienced and serious-minded individual. He’s shown his worth under fire at the highest levels in major national and international crises. He seems unlikely to be the sort to take a crisis and make it worse through either ignorance or foolishness.

Yet there’s a difference between heading a central bank with limited, if important, responsibilities, or offering advice to politicians who must make the final decisions, and running a government with vast obligations, a massive, often immovable bureaucracy and the burden of blame for actions that impact millions of lives.

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Carney (or whoever) will have the option of calling an immediate election in search of a mandate, or putting off the decision to see what develops. The other major parties are all pledged to defeat him at the first opportunity, probably within weeks, but that, too, may change.

We’re in a world where every day brings the sort of surprise we never thought we’d encounter. Will NDP Leader Jagmeet Singh discover it’s not in his party’s interest to force an election in which his troops look bound to be crushed? The will to survive is no less powerful an instinct in politics than anywhere else.

Meanwhile, the person still attracting the strongest show of public support has little influence over the crucial decisions being made, and can’t know when or if he’ll get the chance. Pierre Poilievre’s Conservatives have led polls by wide margins for many months. The gap narrowed noticeably in the commotion following Trudeau’s resignation and the replacement race that followed.

Yet a new Leger poll indicates that the novelty of a new Liberal leader may be waning: it shows the Tories regaining ground, with 43 per cent support against 30 per cent for the Liberals. That would be a five-point gain for the Conservatives and an equal loss for the Liberals.

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There’s a saying that’s current around Wall Street — “make volatility great again” — that looks pretty certain to be met. Starting on Monday, Donald Trump will have a new figure in Ottawa to taunt and abuse in hopes of getting a rise.

It will be up to the new prime minister whether he wants to put up with it for at least a few weeks, or go straight into dealing with Washington — and Ukraine, and everything else the government is liable for — while also fighting an election.

The Conservatives naturally want an election, the sooner the better. Canada would then face the spectacle of parties fiercely bashing one another, each claiming the others are incapable and not worth the risk of putting in power at a moment like this, while simultaneously striving to counter the onslaught of instability, uncertainty and economic damage resulting from a U.S. administration gone off the rails. Canada is strong and united, they will insist, in between denouncing their rivals as liars, frauds and cheats.

Perhaps by June we’ll know who’s in charge. Or maybe we’ll return another minority government, forced to make deals to stay alive on top of everything else. There’s no way to know, and not much that can be done to avoid the dilemma.

One thing we could ask for, however, would be a pledge by all the parties, and some real effort, to put Canada’s interests above all else  and avoid the ugliness, insults and divisiveness that has characterized far too much of the recent past in Ottawa. Be dignified, be civil, show some maturity, ditch the attack ads.

It’s probably too much to hope for, but it’s a time of change, which makes it a good time to try.

National Post

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